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ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
January 07, 2008

I just returned home after spending three days on the campaign trail in New Hampshire. It was a fascinating experience, from eating lunch with fringe candidates, to seeing Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama make speeches back to back, to spending a few minutes with Hillary after a rousing town hall meeting; it was the best and worst of American politics. Once again, a tiny, non-representative state is the center of the political universe. With a population no bigger than a small metropolitan area, New Hampshire, along with Iowa, are insanely given the power to pick a President. With only two days to go until the New Hampshire primary, here are my observations from the ground:

Obama is an Irrational but Compelling Movement

Seeing Obama make a speech up close at the New Hampshire Democratic Club, it’s clear watching him is liking watching a mega-church preacher...even his cadence is similar to a that of a well rehearsed preacher. There is no doubt that he is a great speaker, maybe one of the best, but it is also clear that there is no substance...it’s as if the word hope is all he has to say...smile nice, say hope a dozen or more times and look charming...like in religion, it is a question of faith...you are asked to believe, not to question. To really listen closely to Obama is to hear nothing...but he says nothing really well. And as for the press reporting that the crowd was in a frenzy over him...I was there and that’s a total fabrication...he bused in scores of college students, who he paid to attend...right before his speech and on cue...the 100 kids in attendance, rushed the stage and put on a mock demonstration...the “frenzy” was manufactured and the press knew it.

Hillary Needs to Change Her Message... And Turn Up the Heat

Obama has been given a free ride by the media, but Hillary has not helped herself. The strategy to run her as a virtual incumbent was too arrogant, too entrenched, not nimble and way too cautious. I was incredibly disappointed to see her give her same tired stump speech on Friday night at the New Hampshire Democratic dinner. After Iowa, it was clear that she needed to fine tune her message, but for some inexplicable reason, there she was with the same speech I have heard over and over again. But on Saturday morning, in front of 1000 people at a local high school the change began...she made no speech and took two hours worth of questions from regular New Hampshire citizens...she was great, it’s in these forums that she shines...it’s hard to understand why she hasn’t done more forums like this one. And then in the debate she finally took him on...and yesterday in New Hampshire she finally began to draw sharp contrast between her and Obama. Obama says he is against the war, but he voted for its funding. Obama says he is against lobbyists, but many of his campaign staff are lobbyists including the head of his New Hampshire campaign. Obama says he is against the drug and insurance companies, but he voted against the patient’s bill of rights...and the list goes on and on.

Experience is a good thing. And she has to finally stop apologizing for it. Hillary has a real record of change. Obama has no record at all...words are nice, but actions are better. And what does it mean that he is going to open up and get people more involved in government...don’t get me wrong, it sounds great, but what does it mean? Whether he likes it or not, working in Washington is hard...only real experience is going to get things done, not nice smiles and platitudes.

All that said, it’s remarkable how badly the Clinton campaign has misread the mood of the electorate and what it would take to win the nomination. They were so focused on the general election; they didn’t see the tidal wave of change crashing all around them.

The Republicans are Licking Their Chops...And Praying it’s Obama

I spoke to many Republicans in New Hampshire and around the country and they are praying that Obama is the nominee. He is untested and unvetted. He has no record or accomplishments to speak of... and he has absolutely no foreign policy experience. In the Republican Debate, we got a preview of their campaign against him...no experience, way too liberal for the nation and he has absolutely no foreign policy experience...when push comes to shove, Americans are not going to put someone in the White House that doesn’t have a clue how to be Commander in Chief.

The Democratic Debate was the first time that Obama really got attacked...and frankly, he mumbled and fumbled...if his protector, John Edwards, hadn’t come to his defense Obama would have been in real trouble. Much like the movement that swept George McGovern to the nomination during the Vietnam War, Democrats face a similar crushing defeat once the Republicans get a hold of Obama. The Republicans won’t treat him with kid gloves like the Democrats...the campaign against him is easy...and eventually the press will turn on him...and truly examine his policies and meager record. When that happens, it’s over. The only question is does that happen before February 5th or after?

The Press is in Love with Obama...Really

Hanging out at the Merrimack Restaurant on Elm Street in Manchester; you see candidates, reporters, campaign staffers and regular people all together...it’s the place to be and the place to be seen. And you get to have real, off the record conversations with all sorts of people including the media. In one incredible admission after another I learned that I wasn’t just paranoid, but that the press actually does love Obama. Many reporters, producers and writers admitted that were supporting Obama...and not just a little, but passionately...they didn’t even try and pretend to be neutral. So as not to embarrass them, I am not going to use their name or their media outlet, but they were from major television networks and major newspapers...it was just incredible.

So, when they don’t report that Hillary had 3,000 screaming supporters at a High School in Nashua, or that when Obama is up by 1 point in a poll he has a lead, but when she is up by 5 points, it’s tied...you can now understand why. When Edwards beats her by 1/3 of a percent and she actually beats him in Iowa Delegates, but it’s not reported, you can understand why...the press is mostly young and Obama has done a great job of working them....but, their bias is overwhelming.

In some ways it was refreshing for them to actually tell the truth and not pretend. But, no matter how much they love him, at some point they will turn on him...they always do...they need a race. You can be assured they will go after him if he becomes the presumed nominee.

If Hillary Loses New Hampshire, She Can Still Win on February 5th

As fast as Obama has risen, he can fall. The only thing for certain in politics is that nothing is for certain. If Hillary loses New Hampshire, the pundits will say she is dead...and the Republicans will hardly be able to contain their joy. And, with the polls so strongly against her, much like Bill Clinton, if she finishes a strong second, it will be seen as a victory. But, if Obama wins decisively, he will now be under an intense microscope...and he may have difficulty handling the scrutiny. With Clintons’ new, more aggressive strategy, the press will be forced to more intensely examine Obama. They love him, but they also love a race. There are more than 20 primaries on February 5th and she is very strong in many of the large states. All she has to do is win her fair share and the race is on again. This one has the potential to go all the way to the convention.

Posted by Michael Kempner at January 7, 2008 12:42 PM